By Frazer Bwalya Musonda

My early morning routine includes checking the latest news. On Monday morning (03.03.2025), I was surprised to come across the headline: “He can’t remove me, I am sitting with both buttocks – HH”. Being a skeptic who rarely takes online headlines at face value, I initially dismissed it. However, the headline was reported by different reputable Zambian newspapers. Upon further verification, I confirmed that President Hakainde Hichilema had indeed made this statement at a recent rally.

While the last part of his statement was unsurprising, given his past use of such language, it was nonetheless disappointing. This is particularly disheartening from a leader who, before assuming office, consistently emphasized civil politics. His inauguration speech also reflected this stance. Yet, 4 years into his presidency, he has displayed a pattern of inflammatory rhetoric. During a rally in his early presidency, he declared his intent to ensure that former President Edgar Lungu never returned to power. He even mentioned plans to change “imingalato”—a statement interpreted as tampering with institutional structures, particularly the judiciary. His choice of words at that rally was equally troubling, including derogatory remarks like “chakukola chimbala” and a promise to “grab him by the throat”.

A Persistent Fixation on President Edgar Lungu

Whenever President Hichilema addresses his supporters, he seems unable to resist the urge to bring up his predecessor. Even after effectively eliminating former President Lungu from the 2026 ballot through judicial maneuvers, why does he continue to talk about him at every opportunity? If President Lungu has been legally sidelined, why the continued obsession with ensuring he never returns to power?

The answer likely lies in the realization that his 2021 victory was not solely due to widespread support for the UPND but rather a reaction against the perceived failures of the PF government. Many voters were disillusioned with the unruly behavior of PF cadres and wanted change. However, beyond that, President Hichilema’s campaign was built on a foundation of ambitious promises, most of which he has failed to deliver and likely will not before the 2026 elections. This looming reality understandably gives him sleepless nights.

The Unfulfilled Promises of Economic Revival

Although the UPND government has scored points in certain areas, such as increased Constituency Development Fund (CDF) allocations, the reintroduction of meal allowances for university students, expanded civil service recruitment, and free education, their economic performance has been abysmal. Economic revival was a major pillar of President Hichilema’s 2021 campaign, yet Zambia’s cost of living has continued to skyrocket.

When President Hichilema took office, the Basic Needs and Nutrition Basket (BNNB) for a family of five in Lusaka, as determined by the JCTR, stood at K8,400. By 2023, it had risen to K9,300, and as of March 2025, it is K11,600. The president has failed to either curb the rising cost of living or provide a reassuring vision for economic recovery. His promise to attract significant foreign investment has largely fallen flat, and many youths he once encouraged with “Shout Bally, ci job muli iwe” remain jobless.

Some Economic Failures

1. Fertilizer Prices

While in opposition, President Hichilema accused the PF government of importing fertilizer at $1,100 per ton when the actual cost was $450 per ton, claiming the difference was being funneled into cadre financing. He vowed to reduce the price of a bag of fertilizer from K800 to K250.

However, after over four years in power, the UPND government has failed to lower fertilizer prices anywhere near this promised level. If the previous government was accused of corruption due to high prices, should the same not be said of the current administration? Some may argue that the Russia/Ukraine war played a role, but global fertilizer prices have since stabilized, eliminating this as a credible excuse.

2. Fuel Prices

President Hichilema once claimed that Zambia’s fuel prices were artificially high and that he had a simple Excel spreadsheet solution that would reduce prices by K4 per liter. Today, fuel prices are almost 100% more than when he took office (Petrol basis). While global crude oil prices were initially impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they have since returned to the 2018 highs. Yet, Zambians continue to pay significantly more at the pump, contributing directly to the ever-rising cost of living.

3. Kwacha – Dollar Exchange Rate

During his campaign, President Hichilema famously claimed that upon being sworn in at 10:00 AM, the Kwacha would appreciate against the US dollar by 2:00 PM. This statement, while populist, misled many into expecting significant currency strength.

During that period, comparisons between the Kwacha/US Dollar were mostly based on the exchange levels of 2011, which was $1 → K5. Many expected, at worst, an appreciation to around $1 → K10. Instead, the Kwacha’s performance against the dollar is currently 50% worse than when he took office, yet another failed promise.

The Underlying Fear: A Strong Opponent in 2026

President Hichilema is acutely aware that his economic record is dismal and that many of those who voted for him in 2021 may not do so again. His repeated focus on former President Edgar Lungu suggests deep-seated insecurity about his re-election prospects. A strong opponent in 2026 is his greatest fear, and his rhetoric reflects this anxiety.

Rather than dwelling on former President Lungu, President Hichilema should focus on fixing the economy and delivering on the promises that won him the presidency. If he does not, no amount of political maneuvering will save him from the voters’ judgment in 2026.